With talk of hyperinflation coming...

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frugalmom
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Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 10:52 pm

Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by frugalmom »

:lol:
SandiSAHM wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 9:41 pm When I was young (and dinosaurs roamed the earth...) we lived for a while at Nellis AFB in Nevada. From there we visited some of California. It's lovely.

That said, if you offer me triple what I paid for ANY house, it's sold. And if I lived in a part of CA where a "normal" house (by normal I mean like a 3-4bd contemporary on 1/3 of an acre) sells for the prices Ellen Marie talks about - SOLD! I'll take my profit and go somewhere quieter (even quieter than here) where 1/4 or less of what I made off the house would be spent to pay for another one around the same size, which leaves me with a paid off house and at least 3/4 of the $ yield to invest. I'd make sure to go somewhere property taxes are low (taxes in general being low would be nice). Not too far south, though, the heat is really starting to get to me. Somewhere with good soil, not clay.

I might spend some $ on road trips to go back to CA now and then, but no house that represents that kind of investment is going to be where I stay. Once I sell, the bubble bursting can be the next owner's problem.
:lol: Lol when dinosaurs roamed the earth! You kill me! :lol: YES, I LOVE CA-weather wise-but what keeps us here is family-my kids all are here. A couple of my best friends moved to Texas and I miss them dearly and they like Texas and it looks beautiful from the pictures I get from them! One is coming back in June to visit us! However, I tell my dh why don't we move to Texas and then the freeze happened and he says see you want to move to Texas?! Lol! He won't leave our kids-he doesn't care about money, he rather have family.
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Jackielou
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Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by Jackielou »

Beverley wrote: Thu May 06, 2021 6:15 pm Frugalmom; I do not live that far from you so I do get what you are talking about. While "hyperinflation" may be a little extreme I can also vouch for the fact we have been going into an inflationary period for quite a while and its getting worse. All you have to do is compare trips to the grocery store year by year (or even month by month) to see how crazy it's going. And the housing market is beyond ridiculous. Bay Area people have been selling out for the past few years and moving eastward, it has intensified since the pandemic. The selling price of my house has more than tripled since I bought it 22 years ago.

I don't remember a whole lot about the housing market in the early to mid 1970's but I do remember the double digit inflation. You could buy a widget and sell it a few months later and make a nice profit from it. Remember the "WIN" President Ford talked about? Whip Inflation Now. The thing that finally put the brakes on the inflation was escalating interest rates. We went to double digit interest rates in the 1980's (Remember when 10-12% mortgages were a good deal?). When that happened the economy tanked. Interest rates gradually dropped throughout the 90's and then reached the point where the lower rates started heating up the real estate market. That went on with people going on a borrowing frenzy either buying more house than they could afford or using their home equity as their personal bank account. And the crazy mortgages. This led to the 2008 real estate crash. Then homes were super cheap...lots of foreclosures. People who were priced out started to buy. Then the banks and investors came in and scooped up all the housing inventory and prices started rising again.

The only reason you don't see the double inflation figures now is because the feds tweaked that. Housing, food, gas, medical, education and other necessities are not taken into account when the inflation rate is figured. Only things like electronics and other toys. But don't be fooled. It is happening and the feds think we are dumb enough not to see it. Interest rates should be going up but the feds seem inclined to screw the savers. They want us to spend money.

So while it's best not to go into panic mode don't lose sight of what is happening beneath the surface.

Bev
Wow, those aren't covered under inflation in the states? Some of those are used when figuring out our inflation rate in Canada. Is that good or bad?
Jackie
http://inthelandofthelivingskiesii.blogspot.ca/
floridacatlover
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Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by floridacatlover »

Those items - Housing, food, gas, medical, education and other necessities - are included in the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_7

There is often the charge that the inflation rate used for Social Security should be weighted more heavily on items most used by seniors such as medical care and less on things like clothing.
frugalmom
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Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by frugalmom »

Jackielou wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 7:25 am Wow, those aren't covered under inflation in the states? Some of those are used when figuring out our inflation rate in Canada. Is that good or bad?
Ok I went to look up the cpi basket of goods, while I cannot find the actual basket list (which I will continue to find when I have a bit more time),so it does have certain basic foods on there including even soda! So from what I was reading at the actual Bureau of Labor Statistics-it actually sounded reasonable. Yes, it may be considered a lagging indicator and not what we are facing now only bc it is based on surveys and takes a bit to get the info and interpret it into gathered data which makes sense. I want to see the actual list though so I can calculate it for myself to see in my area. Different areas I think will reflect it differently. The few items I did see on there(only on a small chart stating they are making changes) seemed reasonable for the average family.

They(various articles I was reading when I went to look it up on google) were saying though the problem is first the difference they usually focus more on urban settings (which I would think makes it more expensive and won't understate inflation then,don't you think? But what do I know!?). The second problem with this varying objections say is because if beef for instance goes up by a lot then consumers would buy maybe chicken or something cheaper instead, so it doesn't account for this? My question would be (although I don't have the actual list of goods so Idk) why don't they survey BOTH chicken and beef and various cuts (but maybe that takes too much work as they have other things to measure?). LIke i think the food aspect is the most important. Although I read somewhere they didn't even account for food like Bev said (I am certainly glad they do so)and I know I won't be able to find that again somewhere bc I read it in passing,but I will have to check for that again(so I will hunt for that too)!

Also they said the problem with housing is it is hypothetical and they ask what you would rent out your house for as an example instead of the actual costs. So Idk what that is all about? So although I do think they understate some of the costs to look better(or maybe not to have to pay out more for social security I wonder?!), I do think actually when I was reading the BLS site that you know overall it is not too bad bc I am sure it is hard to encompass everything and it should go to the basic items we as citizens use on an everyday basis. I wish it was a better and more reliable inflation measure only bc we are on social security and these piddly increases are not much compared to the prices around us going up that maybe are not being measured!? Like dh got a small increase in social security COL adjustment,but then on the same hand the medicare costs went up as well,so like what it gives, it takeths! LOL! I am interested now like HOW to be a person that is considered for those surveys since I keep track of things in spending in general,but I used to have a price book and pretty much know my prices anyway, so I would like to join up!

After you said that Jackie, I went to do a bit of research and it was interesting. I think all of you in the US(and each country read theirs-wonder if Russia or China has these reports too?) should read up on it too bc I never really read about it except in passing what others say about it. And it is concerning though to me that like everything around me seems to be going up in price for the most part (except croissants in Costco actually went back down to 4.99 from 5.99-lol! But it used to be 3.99 long ago!), but again I live in the expensive part of the nation as well so my gas prices are horrible (4.16 the other day/gallon) and maybe making the stuff like food costs around me more, whereas other parts of the nation have less prices in gas and their stores may reflect those costs. So my next thing to look up is do they do regional col to show the differences? It has been so interesting to me reading all of this (I am a nerd I guess-should have gone into economics since I liked it so much-I know :roll: heaven help us is what y'all are thinking!?). ;) :lol: BTW, I did go on shadowstats in passing again to see what I could find-to me that was a bit of mumbo jumbo (so much for my brilliant economic mind :lol: !) and I couldn't really go into depth on that one like I did on the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)-it just blew past my mind (we need Logics or Floridacatlover to figure that one out-they are the ones with the brains!). Or Colonialgirl she has brains too-btw I have not seen her posts lately-hope she is doing well, I miss her!
clemencia2us
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Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by clemencia2us »

frugalmom wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 12:17 am :lol:

:lol: Lol when dinosaurs roamed the earth! You kill me! :lol: YES, I LOVE CA-weather wise-but what keeps us here is family-my kids all are here. A couple of my best friends moved to Texas and I miss them dearly and they like Texas and it looks beautiful from the pictures I get from them! One is coming back in June to visit us! However, I tell my dh why don't we move to Texas and then the freeze happened and he says see you want to move to Texas?! Lol! He won't leave our kids-he doesn't care about money, he rather have family.
No - its not that great.

If i lived in California, I would never leave. Wonder why my familia didn't move there. I do have cousins there.
LogicsHere
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Joined: Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:49 am

Re: With talk of hyperinflation coming...

Post by LogicsHere »

frugalmom wrote: Fri May 07, 2021 12:56 pm
After you said that Jackie, I went to do a bit of research and it was interesting. I think all of you in the US(and each country read theirs-wonder if Russia or China has these reports too?) should read up on it too bc I never really read about it except in passing what others say about it. And it is concerning though to me that like everything around me seems to be going up in price for the most part (except croissants in Costco actually went back down to 4.99 from 5.99-lol! But it used to be 3.99 long ago!), but again I live in the expensive part of the nation as well so my gas prices are horrible (4.16 the other day/gallon) and maybe making the stuff like food costs around me more, whereas other parts of the nation have less prices in gas and their stores may reflect those costs. So my next thing to look up is do they do regional col to show the differences? It has been so interesting to me reading all of this (I am a nerd I guess-should have gone into economics since I liked it so much-I know :roll: heaven help us is what y'all are thinking!?). ;) :lol: BTW, I did go on shadowstats in passing again to see what I could find-to me that was a bit of mumbo jumbo (so much for my brilliant economic mind :lol: !) and I couldn't really go into depth on that one like I did on the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)-it just blew past my mind (we need Logics or Floridacatlover to figure that one out-they are the ones with the brains!). Or Colonialgirl she has brains too-btw I have not seen her posts lately-hope she is doing well, I miss her!
You give me too much credit LOL.
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